Factory figures buoy markets’ recovery hopes

Fresh data signalling a recovery in the embattled manufacturing sector has this morning bolstered hopes the UK is emerging from recession more robustly than first thought.

Activity in the manufacturing sector picked up faster than economists expected in February helped by strong orders from overseas and as factories were able raise their prices, according to the CIPS/Markit manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI).

The headline activity reading on the PMI came in at 56.6 last month, unchanged from January’s 15-year high. Economists polled by Reuters had on average expected growth to slow, predicting a reading of 56.1.

The PMI’s output index was the highest since September 1996 and export orders were the highest since January 1996, when comparable records began. As raw material costs rose at the fastest pace for more than a year, so too did the prices that factories charged for their goods – the highest reading since October 2008.

After the recession ravaged employment in the manufacturing sector there were further signs of an improving jobs market as the survey showed employment rising for the second month in a row.

The relatively upbeat survey follows official data on Friday showing that Britain’s emergence from recession at the end of 2009 was stronger than first thought. The Office for National Statistics revised up its fourth quarter growth estimate to 0.3% from 0.1%.

Commenting on his group’s survey today, Rob Dobson, senior economist at Markit Economics says:

“The PMI survey suggests that the good news provided by the surge in output reported by the Office for National Statistics in December will have continued in early-2010.”

“Even more encouraging are the growing signs that business-to-business and investment spending are recovering, which points to a more sustainable and broad-based recovery.”

Against that backdrop the FTSE 100 is currently up 39 points, or 0.7%, at 5393, with almost all the top 10 slots taken by miners as metals prices rose. Copper is at a five-week high as the earthquake in Chile sparks supply fears.

Looking further ahead the manufacturing data has quelled fears that the UK economy could dip back into contraction in the first quarter. But James Knightley at ING Financial Markets issues a note of caution:

“The output level is at its highest since 1996, while export orders are at all time highs. This bodes well for a good first quarter of 2010 GDP figure, but we need to remember that manufacturing is still a small part of the UK economy (less than 15%) while consumer spending (around two-thirds of the economy) remains soft.”


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Factory figures buoy markets’ recovery hopes

Fresh data signalling a recovery in the embattled manufacturing sector has this morning bolstered hopes the UK is emerging from recession more robustly than first thought.

Activity in the manufacturing sector picked up faster than economists expected in February helped by strong orders from overseas and as factories were able raise their prices, according to the CIPS/Markit manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI).

The headline activity reading on the PMI came in at 56.6 last month, unchanged from January’s 15-year high. Economists polled by Reuters had on average expected growth to slow, predicting a reading of 56.1.

The PMI’s output index was the highest since September 1996 and export orders were the highest since January 1996, when comparable records began. As raw material costs rose at the fastest pace for more than a year, so too did the prices that factories charged for their goods – the highest reading since October 2008.

After the recession ravaged employment in the manufacturing sector there were further signs of an improving jobs market as the survey showed employment rising for the second month in a row.

The relatively upbeat survey follows official data on Friday showing that Britain’s emergence from recession at the end of 2009 was stronger than first thought. The Office for National Statistics revised up its fourth quarter growth estimate to 0.3% from 0.1%.

Commenting on his group’s survey today, Rob Dobson, senior economist at Markit Economics says:

“The PMI survey suggests that the good news provided by the surge in output reported by the Office for National Statistics in December will have continued in early-2010.”

“Even more encouraging are the growing signs that business-to-business and investment spending are recovering, which points to a more sustainable and broad-based recovery.”

Against that backdrop the FTSE 100 is currently up 39 points, or 0.7%, at 5393, with almost all the top 10 slots taken by miners as metals prices rose. Copper is at a five-week high as the earthquake in Chile sparks supply fears.

Looking further ahead the manufacturing data has quelled fears that the UK economy could dip back into contraction in the first quarter. But James Knightley at ING Financial Markets issues a note of caution:

“The output level is at its highest since 1996, while export orders are at all time highs. This bodes well for a good first quarter of 2010 GDP figure, but we need to remember that manufacturing is still a small part of the UK economy (less than 15%) while consumer spending (around two-thirds of the economy) remains soft.”


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  • Nick Clegg addresses the dreaded hung parliament issue
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