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More expensive Russian gas to Western Europe |
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Sunday, 06 July 2008 |
The Russian gas giant "Gazprom" plans to sell gas to Western Europe at the end of the year at a price 500 dollars per 1000 cubic m. against 370 dollars in March, said General Director of Gazprom "Alexei Miler.
If oil becomes more expensive at 250 dollars for a barrel, the price of Russian gas and may reach 1000 dollars, explained Miler.
In his words, the potential for growth in the prices of natural gas has been ignored even by the "Gazprom".
Already in April Corporation predicts that the average cost of supply in Europe will be 349 dollars per 1000 cub.m., but the level of 410 dollars was reached in June.
 The current forecast of "Gazprom" for the average price in 2008 is 401 dollars for 1000 cub.m. This is 47% more than in 2007 (272.8 dollars for 1000 cub.m.). This is also a new record price of European growth, which in 2006 increased by 40%.
In the European Treaties of "Gazprom" is the price index, following quotations of petroleum products (as a rule, heating oil and diesel) with the gap of 6-9 months.
The estimate of Unicredit Athos "for European prices for gas in 2009 -- 438 dollars for 1000 cub.m., with revenue of "Gazprom" from the sale of gas at that price may reach 135.8 billion dollars, a consolidated earnings - 51 billion dollars.
In Europe price for a 500 dollars for 1000 cub.m. and a proportional increase in prices for the near abroad (the former Soviet republics) in 2009 "Gazprom" may receive additional revenue of around 15 billion dollars, calculated specialist of Unicredit Athos Pavel Sorokin.
All are convinced that gas will continue to strongly increase its price, said manager of CA SF. He has not seen estimates of Miler, but hopes that the estimate of 1000 dollars for 1000 cub.m. will not be true.
This price may become a reality, objects economist Evgeny Gavrilenkov. For Europe this spike in prices will be painful enough, but this shock could be myocardial. If the price of oil reaches 250 dollars for a barrel , the dollar-Euro will be set at 2 to 1 rather than 1.61 to 1 as now.
In connection with this growth in prices for Europeans will not be so significant, Gavrilenkov said.
Similar growth was not more dangerous for Russia. If this money is put into the economy, hyper inflation is inevitable. "No one, of course, did not know, but the price of 250 dollars for a barrel and 1000 dollars for 1000 cub.m. will lead us to two-digit inflation, and the first digit will be" couple ", is convinced an employee of the Ministry of Finance .
In a similar increase in prices financial ministry will continue conservative budgetary policy's additional resources in oil-gas reserve.
Unlike Gavrilenkov official considered the scenario of 1000 dollars for 1000 cub.m. for "fiction". Such a level of prices means the global recession, which would all suffer, warns economist by Deutsche Bank "Adam Siminski.
Growth in the price of gas to 500 dollars for 1000 cub.m. is sufficient to delay the global economy, similar to what was recorded in the early 80 - years of the twentieth century, he predicts.
According to calculations by the International Monetary Fund, growth in oil prices to 25 dollars each reduce global GDP by 0.5%, said Siminski: at an average annual price of 125 dollars for a barrel, growth in the global economy in 2008 will be 3.5%, and at 200 dollars for a barrel - only 2%. |
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